After 10,000 Chiefs-Bills simulations, a tried and trusted best bet has been revealed

The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills meet in a Week 11 showdown with both teams riding high this season. The Chiefs, undefeated at 9-0, continue to assert dominance behind Patrick Mahomes’ high-powered offense and a defense that has held strong. The Bills, sitting at 8-2, have shown their own strength in the AFC East with Josh Allen leading an explosive offense backed by a resilient defense, though questions about the status of tight end Dalton Kincaid linger ahead of Sunday’s kickoff.
Surprisingly, the Chiefs enter as 2.5-point underdogs despite their perfect record. This reflects the Bills’ strong season and home-field advantage in Buffalo. Mahomes, however, has an impressive history as an underdog, holding a 11-3 record straight up and 12-1-1 against the spread.
To find the best bet, we ran 10,000 simulations of this game, uncovering a clear trend that points to a proven betting strategy—details revealed below.
The experts have Dimers have used their famous NFL model to run 10,000 simulations of what is likely the biggest game of the season thus far, with value to be found on the reigning champs to cover the spread.
Their advanced models, backed by thousands of simulations, are crafted to reveal true market edges and are updated throughout the week to reflect team announcements, weather, and real-time market movements.
With that in mind, let’s breakdown the numbers when it comes to the Chiefs +2.5 (-110) bet that they are suggesting.
As you can see above, the Chiefs covered in 53.5% of simulations (5,354 of 10,000 to be precise), making them the team to take at the spread. This comes despite the Bills winning outright 55.4% of the time, showing the tight projected nature of this game.
Plus, with the above-mentioned record of Mahomes as an underdog, your bet is clearly in good hands!
As well as the 10,000 simulations resulting in the above bet, the team at Dimers has also uncovered some player prop edges for the game, with supporters of both teams covered below:
Josh Allen To Score a Touchdown
Mecole Hardman To Score a Touchdown
James Cook Over 56.5 Rushing Yards
Noah Gray Over 16.5 Receiving Yards
With both teams boasting strong seasons and dynamic rosters, this Chiefs-Bills matchup promises to be a thrilling showdown with plenty of action. Dimers’ advanced models have highlighted Chiefs +2.5 as the best bet, backed by a 53.5% probability to cover, and a slight edge, reflecting the game’s tight margin.
Additionally, with player prop bets like Josh Allen to score and Noah Gray to clear his receiving yard line, there are opportunities for fans of both teams to find value on individual performances. As kickoff approaches, this data-driven insight positions bettors to make the most of one of the season’s most anticipated games.
If you’re looking for a betting boost, learn about the new betting deals released by Caesars Sportsbook, DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and Bet365 for NFL Week 11 this weekend.